A timely piece. I'd bet that everyone who reads this newsletter has thought long and hard about the prospects of a civil war breaking out.
IMO there will be no civil war. Washington lacks troops that it can rely upon. It lacks senior officers who are capable of inspiring the sort of loyalty necessary for anything like it. It most certainly lacks the political leadership capable of managing a war. The combat wing of the military is simply not turning its guns on mainstream America. Who would risk violent death to suppress the domestic opponents of anyone like Biden, Harris, Obama or either of the Clintons?
Washington does enjoy an abundance of malice and ambition. The regime will certainly direct violence against the people, but this will come from SWAT teams employed by agencies within the civil administration itself and by de facto irregulars and parodic paramilitaries such as ANTIFA.
Washington already covertly sponsors criminal violence on a widespread basis to ethnically cleanse key cities of whites. This serves the usual suspects with a long term political or financial interest in the eventual gentrification initiatives. But the flight to relative safety strengthens the resolve of the surviving regional forces of sense and order.
The regime also already incites lethal violence against critics and dissidents in selected areas. At least two MAGA supporters were murdered, one in Portland and another in (I think) Denver. In the case of the former the authorities did not bother to investigate, in the latter charges were reduced.
All of this is sinister and it is likely that Washington will escalate. We are seeing a post-modern parody of the Reconstruction era when a handful of Scallywags and Carpetbaggers, supported by the Freedmen's Bureau, presided over widespread low intensity violence to subdue the civilian population via a form of anarcho-tyranny.
We shall also see further mass immigration, legal and illegal, to secure the political interests that seek to create an Afro-Saxon version of Brazil across North America: zones of functional and productive society surrounded by slums, favelas, No-Go Zones and a rural and Rust Belt hinterland constrained by the threat of state violence and a form of surveillance capitalism designed to control the helots.
Yet the threat of real military force per se is political theatre. Ugly. Thuggish. But such threats are a sign of desperation and abject weakness. Lincoln had a burgeoning industrial behemoth and a loyal army at his disposal...Dark Brandon has a hollowed out service economy in decline and an armed forces burdened by affirmative action, feminism and gender diversity.
The real danger is from the intelligence community. Until that splits, with a least a portion turning on the regime, we shall see escalating levels of violence, applied to more and more of the USA, but it will stop short of actual civil war.
Yes, we've all pondered this idea of civil war that's been de rigeur for years now.
Will there be one? Maybe that depends on what type we're talking about. What do we imagine? It certainly wont be 1861 again. And there really arent Red and Blue states per se. There are lots of Blue cities and Red counties, making any talk about secession and splits very complicated.
But do we even know that? I'm convinced we are deeply deceived about the political makeup of the population. I suspect that the true numbers of committed Blues is quite small, even in cities, even in places like NY or CA. That's not to say that there isn't a sizable number of people who mouth the platitudes for mercenary or peer pressure reasons. But the ones who will actually fight? Not that many.
So perhaps the critical fight will be an info war over these susceptible to mass formation techniques, to convince them that dc is the Blue ideology will save them from hunger, cold, poverty?
Which means the war the Regime envisions is a variation on the Scamdemic where most people hide their heads and ignore the mass arrests and incarceration of dissidents and political opponents similar to the way people largely ignored bar owners being arrested for refusing lockdowns or muzzle resisters arrested for trying to fly. The Regime wants this low grade war where MAGA and anyone sounding those themes must be cancelled and cast out.
The intentional impoverishment of Americans ensures that people will be too focused on survival to protest or organize.
Yours are very important insights. Only a tiny minority of true believers would conceivably be capable of any kind of combat, even as irregulars and not even Biden is so far gone that he would cast the die relying on the meth-heads of ANTIFA.
A low grade conflict mostly fought by propaganda, psy-ops and carefully focused police repression (supplemented by a few assassinations, beatings and plenty of abusive incarceration) is exactly the kind of war that the regime would be capable of. A war without courage or honour. I expect that they would relish it. The Scamdemic certainly gave them the chance to test the docility of the masses, while the lack of any outcry over the treatment of the Jan 6 political prisoners must reassure the Beltway no end.
Even without a true civil war, they are intent on ruling over ruins. At heart, they are gangsters.
The only reason not to despair is that there are millions, if not tens of millions, who understand that their freedom, safety, dignity and property are at stake. I'd also expect that the chaos that would come from a collapsing social order and mass pauperisation could very easily become unmanageable, even for people who are experts at governance by way of curated dysfunction.
I think once the currency collapses (along with the ability to financially support the new "refugees" and the aparatchiks of FedGov), and the weather turns inclement (we are heading into a mini-ice age), most of the newly arrived "zeroeth amendment new Americans" will self-deport. Many others will be deported for the slightest violations.
The next couple decades are going to hold everyone's full attention, lol.
The currency won't even need to collapse, it just has to weaken to the point where it cannot sustain the current number of workers with borderline or (in some cases) negligeable productivity. The illusion of mass prosperity has been possible because of the petrodollar. Household consumption in the US has long depended on cheap credit and cheap imports. Government spending depends on foreign governments and banks buying US bonds, allowing it to neglect the domestic economy. Compromise the ability of households or governments to borrow and social peace evaporates overnight. Hyperinflation (a very real possibility) would pauperise practically everyone and all but guarantee a viable mass constituency for old-fashioned socialism. In the US today that would come wrapped up with a very heavy element of racial grievance and ethnic rivalry.
How many people will depart North America is unknowable. At the moment the number of expatriates is rising. Hopes for the self-deportation of illegals is IMHO delusional. Even in a pauperised state most of North America is vastly better than life in any of the ^^^^-holes they came from. They are perfectly adapted to living in slum-world and many will thrive here in dystopian conditions. Short of a near-apocalypse, the prospect that any government would deport any significant number of illegals is truly remote.
You are dead right about the next couple of decades. It will be a wild ride.
Assuming something similar to 1953-54 happens, most will self-deport due to the same reasons they did then: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Wetback Although I expect the name of the operation to be somewhat less inflammatory, and many "Hispanics" to remain.
Either FedGov does that, or it collapses, and the USA officiall/defacto balkanizes into mini-ethnostates (probably 90% homogenous, with <10% non-ethnics who are accepted). I'm OK with either scenario.
I'm giving a very high probability to a near-Armageddon scenario. Most people are hilariously ill-prepared for what is coming. Those that aren't will make the rules for the rest. Thus has it ever been.
The resolve and capacity of the Eisenhower era are no longer available and are unlikely to be recovered in the immediate future. This is a terrible pity.
Balkanization is a distinct possibility, but if it happens it will not involve classical ethno-states with coherent and well-defined ethnic/cultural characteristics. More likely it will be very messy and a super-weak regime may hang on in Washington for a while.
Personally, I'd expect something like South Africa, where the nucleus of a potentially autonomous redoubt comprised of Anglos, Afrikaners and Cape Coloureds may yet develop in parts of the Cape. De facto autonomy and control of territory, with a capacity to exclude unwelcome migratory incursions and frustrate predation by the central government is more important than legal or constitutional formalities. Safety, good order and elementary levels of cohesion/trust are the essentials. Workable economic and social institutions can develop pretty rapidly. Finance is a key thing: states with low levels of debt and bullion deposits guarded by state troopers have a better chance than the others.
People do not have a clue. The USA will make Yeltsin's Russia look like boom times.
-10% of the Eisenhower-era resolve + no ability to pay new migrants to survive b/c you can hardly pay your employees + hostility to out-groups (all late arrivers) can IMO produce the same result
-Balkanization will occur if the above does not b/c of the central gov'ts inability to project power (and they're outnumbered something like 50:1)
-The USA is still 60% white, so the likelihood of a SA type conclusion is unlikely IMO (more likely people migrate to regions where there is already a majority)
-Further unwanted migration is unlikely post USD-hegemony (those here will phone home and say don't come & send $ so I can get a bus home)
-A certain percentage of the US pop will become relatively very rich in comparison to others, and still maintain the knowledge, ability, and drive to get things done, while in the recent former USSR there was a population used to doing what they were told. In addition, most of the order-followers in the USA took the clotshot, so their life expectancy is vastly reduced, and the survivors will be highly adverse to obeying non-earned authority.
But my crystal ball needs batteries so it's all speculation on my part
Regarding trading competence for reliability by hiring third world auxiliaries. Into the military - that's the basic strategy of bioleninism as applied to every other institution they've subverted, so why not the military too? That might not work out so well when shooting is involved, however. It's one thing in the DMV or the HR department, another when your minions are breaking expensive equipment they don't know how to maintain while their numbers get chewed to bits by guerillas in the heartland.
The competency issue is apparently relevant for the service academies too. Andrei Martyanov wrote an article a short time ago in which he pasted screen shots of a book on West Point that claimed they were accepting officer candidates whose aptitude test scores were at the lowest qualifying level for enlisted recruits.
Thank you. The good news in all this bad news, is their manufactured narrative that does not in any way reflect 'reality' also does not reflect how the majority of Americans actually feels. They are looking desperate, really desperate and so perhaps is quickening waking up.
Lots more ugly coming, but I have no doubt, this all falls apart and something 'real' replaces it.
A timely piece. I'd bet that everyone who reads this newsletter has thought long and hard about the prospects of a civil war breaking out.
IMO there will be no civil war. Washington lacks troops that it can rely upon. It lacks senior officers who are capable of inspiring the sort of loyalty necessary for anything like it. It most certainly lacks the political leadership capable of managing a war. The combat wing of the military is simply not turning its guns on mainstream America. Who would risk violent death to suppress the domestic opponents of anyone like Biden, Harris, Obama or either of the Clintons?
Washington does enjoy an abundance of malice and ambition. The regime will certainly direct violence against the people, but this will come from SWAT teams employed by agencies within the civil administration itself and by de facto irregulars and parodic paramilitaries such as ANTIFA.
Washington already covertly sponsors criminal violence on a widespread basis to ethnically cleanse key cities of whites. This serves the usual suspects with a long term political or financial interest in the eventual gentrification initiatives. But the flight to relative safety strengthens the resolve of the surviving regional forces of sense and order.
The regime also already incites lethal violence against critics and dissidents in selected areas. At least two MAGA supporters were murdered, one in Portland and another in (I think) Denver. In the case of the former the authorities did not bother to investigate, in the latter charges were reduced.
All of this is sinister and it is likely that Washington will escalate. We are seeing a post-modern parody of the Reconstruction era when a handful of Scallywags and Carpetbaggers, supported by the Freedmen's Bureau, presided over widespread low intensity violence to subdue the civilian population via a form of anarcho-tyranny.
We shall also see further mass immigration, legal and illegal, to secure the political interests that seek to create an Afro-Saxon version of Brazil across North America: zones of functional and productive society surrounded by slums, favelas, No-Go Zones and a rural and Rust Belt hinterland constrained by the threat of state violence and a form of surveillance capitalism designed to control the helots.
Yet the threat of real military force per se is political theatre. Ugly. Thuggish. But such threats are a sign of desperation and abject weakness. Lincoln had a burgeoning industrial behemoth and a loyal army at his disposal...Dark Brandon has a hollowed out service economy in decline and an armed forces burdened by affirmative action, feminism and gender diversity.
The real danger is from the intelligence community. Until that splits, with a least a portion turning on the regime, we shall see escalating levels of violence, applied to more and more of the USA, but it will stop short of actual civil war.
@ phillip
Great comments. Where to begin?
Yes, we've all pondered this idea of civil war that's been de rigeur for years now.
Will there be one? Maybe that depends on what type we're talking about. What do we imagine? It certainly wont be 1861 again. And there really arent Red and Blue states per se. There are lots of Blue cities and Red counties, making any talk about secession and splits very complicated.
But do we even know that? I'm convinced we are deeply deceived about the political makeup of the population. I suspect that the true numbers of committed Blues is quite small, even in cities, even in places like NY or CA. That's not to say that there isn't a sizable number of people who mouth the platitudes for mercenary or peer pressure reasons. But the ones who will actually fight? Not that many.
So perhaps the critical fight will be an info war over these susceptible to mass formation techniques, to convince them that dc is the Blue ideology will save them from hunger, cold, poverty?
Which means the war the Regime envisions is a variation on the Scamdemic where most people hide their heads and ignore the mass arrests and incarceration of dissidents and political opponents similar to the way people largely ignored bar owners being arrested for refusing lockdowns or muzzle resisters arrested for trying to fly. The Regime wants this low grade war where MAGA and anyone sounding those themes must be cancelled and cast out.
The intentional impoverishment of Americans ensures that people will be too focused on survival to protest or organize.
Yours are very important insights. Only a tiny minority of true believers would conceivably be capable of any kind of combat, even as irregulars and not even Biden is so far gone that he would cast the die relying on the meth-heads of ANTIFA.
A low grade conflict mostly fought by propaganda, psy-ops and carefully focused police repression (supplemented by a few assassinations, beatings and plenty of abusive incarceration) is exactly the kind of war that the regime would be capable of. A war without courage or honour. I expect that they would relish it. The Scamdemic certainly gave them the chance to test the docility of the masses, while the lack of any outcry over the treatment of the Jan 6 political prisoners must reassure the Beltway no end.
Even without a true civil war, they are intent on ruling over ruins. At heart, they are gangsters.
The only reason not to despair is that there are millions, if not tens of millions, who understand that their freedom, safety, dignity and property are at stake. I'd also expect that the chaos that would come from a collapsing social order and mass pauperisation could very easily become unmanageable, even for people who are experts at governance by way of curated dysfunction.
I think once the currency collapses (along with the ability to financially support the new "refugees" and the aparatchiks of FedGov), and the weather turns inclement (we are heading into a mini-ice age), most of the newly arrived "zeroeth amendment new Americans" will self-deport. Many others will be deported for the slightest violations.
The next couple decades are going to hold everyone's full attention, lol.
The currency won't even need to collapse, it just has to weaken to the point where it cannot sustain the current number of workers with borderline or (in some cases) negligeable productivity. The illusion of mass prosperity has been possible because of the petrodollar. Household consumption in the US has long depended on cheap credit and cheap imports. Government spending depends on foreign governments and banks buying US bonds, allowing it to neglect the domestic economy. Compromise the ability of households or governments to borrow and social peace evaporates overnight. Hyperinflation (a very real possibility) would pauperise practically everyone and all but guarantee a viable mass constituency for old-fashioned socialism. In the US today that would come wrapped up with a very heavy element of racial grievance and ethnic rivalry.
How many people will depart North America is unknowable. At the moment the number of expatriates is rising. Hopes for the self-deportation of illegals is IMHO delusional. Even in a pauperised state most of North America is vastly better than life in any of the ^^^^-holes they came from. They are perfectly adapted to living in slum-world and many will thrive here in dystopian conditions. Short of a near-apocalypse, the prospect that any government would deport any significant number of illegals is truly remote.
You are dead right about the next couple of decades. It will be a wild ride.
Assuming something similar to 1953-54 happens, most will self-deport due to the same reasons they did then: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Wetback Although I expect the name of the operation to be somewhat less inflammatory, and many "Hispanics" to remain.
Either FedGov does that, or it collapses, and the USA officiall/defacto balkanizes into mini-ethnostates (probably 90% homogenous, with <10% non-ethnics who are accepted). I'm OK with either scenario.
I'm giving a very high probability to a near-Armageddon scenario. Most people are hilariously ill-prepared for what is coming. Those that aren't will make the rules for the rest. Thus has it ever been.
The resolve and capacity of the Eisenhower era are no longer available and are unlikely to be recovered in the immediate future. This is a terrible pity.
Balkanization is a distinct possibility, but if it happens it will not involve classical ethno-states with coherent and well-defined ethnic/cultural characteristics. More likely it will be very messy and a super-weak regime may hang on in Washington for a while.
Personally, I'd expect something like South Africa, where the nucleus of a potentially autonomous redoubt comprised of Anglos, Afrikaners and Cape Coloureds may yet develop in parts of the Cape. De facto autonomy and control of territory, with a capacity to exclude unwelcome migratory incursions and frustrate predation by the central government is more important than legal or constitutional formalities. Safety, good order and elementary levels of cohesion/trust are the essentials. Workable economic and social institutions can develop pretty rapidly. Finance is a key thing: states with low levels of debt and bullion deposits guarded by state troopers have a better chance than the others.
People do not have a clue. The USA will make Yeltsin's Russia look like boom times.
All good points, however:
-10% of the Eisenhower-era resolve + no ability to pay new migrants to survive b/c you can hardly pay your employees + hostility to out-groups (all late arrivers) can IMO produce the same result
-Balkanization will occur if the above does not b/c of the central gov'ts inability to project power (and they're outnumbered something like 50:1)
-The USA is still 60% white, so the likelihood of a SA type conclusion is unlikely IMO (more likely people migrate to regions where there is already a majority)
-Further unwanted migration is unlikely post USD-hegemony (those here will phone home and say don't come & send $ so I can get a bus home)
-A certain percentage of the US pop will become relatively very rich in comparison to others, and still maintain the knowledge, ability, and drive to get things done, while in the recent former USSR there was a population used to doing what they were told. In addition, most of the order-followers in the USA took the clotshot, so their life expectancy is vastly reduced, and the survivors will be highly adverse to obeying non-earned authority.
But my crystal ball needs batteries so it's all speculation on my part
Regarding trading competence for reliability by hiring third world auxiliaries. Into the military - that's the basic strategy of bioleninism as applied to every other institution they've subverted, so why not the military too? That might not work out so well when shooting is involved, however. It's one thing in the DMV or the HR department, another when your minions are breaking expensive equipment they don't know how to maintain while their numbers get chewed to bits by guerillas in the heartland.
The competency issue is apparently relevant for the service academies too. Andrei Martyanov wrote an article a short time ago in which he pasted screen shots of a book on West Point that claimed they were accepting officer candidates whose aptitude test scores were at the lowest qualifying level for enlisted recruits.
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/08/a-good-explanation.html
This does not bode well for any of Dark Brandon's wannabe "Sardaukar"...real-life combat is, amongst other things, an IQ test from Hell.
Thank you. The good news in all this bad news, is their manufactured narrative that does not in any way reflect 'reality' also does not reflect how the majority of Americans actually feels. They are looking desperate, really desperate and so perhaps is quickening waking up.
Lots more ugly coming, but I have no doubt, this all falls apart and something 'real' replaces it.
Thought provoking and succinct. Excellent as always Theophilus. Thank You. Also. Very solid comment section.