In addition to people still being relatively comfortable, I think a big factor that has so far kept things from going kinetic is that the people who really understand violence are on the right. Firearms owners and military veterans - particularly those blooded in the sands of Afghanistan and Mesopotamia - know just how bad armed civil conflict is. That makes them especially reluctant to take that step. On the other side, leftists as a rule have no familiarity with violence (as revealed by their naive equation of speech with violence) and so, they keep pushing.
All of this could fall apart very quickly. The speed of the hyperconnected telecommunications system; the interpenetration of rural red and urban blue areas; a collapsing economy; a federal government perceived as illegitimate; all of these could combine explosively, such that when the balloon goes up, it goes up everywhere and all at once.
That should be "interpenetration of rural red and urban blue areas".
If you look at the county-level political geography of the US, both blue and red states actually consist of blue cities surrounded by red counties; the states are only red or blue depending on the relative balance of urban/rural populations.
That means the political separation is not as cleanly geographical as it was during Civil War 1. If CW2 manifests, rather than a relatively isolated front, we're more likely to see large parts of the country spontaneously combust into fragmented battlefields.
And a fascinating dynamic is playing out now. We are starting to see the first fruits of people shedding their prescribed labels-- left, right, liberal, conservative-- and starting to talk as Americans w shared concerns-- good jobs, safe neighborhood, stable prices, healthy families. The Oligarchs have kept us all divided previously. If people in the city and county realize they are allies not enemies, there is huge hope there.
Great analysis of the current situation, especially your take on the differences between the stable social order of 1984 vs the increasing chaos and dysfunction of our leftist-controlled institutions, as well as the deepening disconnect between the regime's official ideology and what the population really thinks.
There's much room for hope given how incompetent the Left is. The Left is now the elite, and their enemies are the counterculture of today. The Left's grand project of remaking society can only increase the chaos, yet paradoxically, chaos works better for their opposition to wage an asymmetrical culture war (and a guerilla war if things do go hot). The Left's acceleration and overreach, which is inevitable at this point, is basically giving their enemies in today's counterculture the tools they need for victory.
Great analysis. How ironic that the theatre that are the J6 hearing will be proven completely hollow and politically fruitless by the same liberals that have been smugly denouncing the evil terrorist racist homophobic unconstitutional conservatives as they foment riots and violence because of the supreme court decisions on Thursday and Friday. The left is so contradictory and self-destructive that it is like a house built on sand. They argue from both sides of their mouth without blinking, it's amazing. The children they so want to dominate and claim ownership over institutionaly are the same that they would happily have murdered under their right to abortion.
1. We really do see repeated and increasing collisions between the Regime acceleration and Desantis and the state of Florida. (I remain suspicious of Desantis but...). At the same time, Florida politicians seem to be catching the wind direction and increasingly playing to a growing Florida constituency that is cheering on resistance to Regime overreach. In fact it seems the people want more not less. So Florida may well be the match the Regime wants to set it all on fire. Perhaps the Regime is pushing out the radical policies specifically calculated to trigger Florida and induce a show down where the Regime believes they can hammer Desantis and co. pour encourager des autres.
2. The Regime must be fairly desperate as they lack anything like the firepower or manpower to force compliance. They could cut off federal $$ to states but that is not going to work if the issue is popular w state residents.
3. National divorce....hmmm. The problem w this idea is that there just aren't enough people on the Blue side to make a split work outside of certain cities. Sure, Portland would be happy to be its own communist state but i think one of the most effective bits of propaganda sold to Americans is the notion of "blue states" and "blue cities." Given what we know about how many millions of ballots the Oligarchs had to manufacture in 2020 in their supposedly bluest cities (philly, Pittsburgh, Detroit), they don't have anywhere near the level of support they want us to believe. So it's entirely likely that Red states will eventually either nullify federal edicts they don't like or secede in some fashion, but it will look like the great United States of American Ice Cube where the US steadily shrinks from 50 to 45 to 38 to 28 and so on until people living in the melty remains of the US demand similar autonomy or abandon the remainers en masse.
Some of the most insightful stuff you have written. As DanielD noted, the contrast between Orwell and now is telling and compelling. Thanks for thinking this through...
Its sad for them that they don't realize that they can put on the brakes without losing control in the long run. Their only true political opposition consists of people with principles, they can't imagine that their political opponents wouldn't do exactly what they're doing if they were in the same position. I'm going to go read your post on social cohesion, I think we can have a cohesive identity as Americans as opposed to anti-Americans that are sure the ends always justify the means. I can't believe the extent to which the anti-Americans have come out of the woodwork following the RvW reversal openly calling for ignoring constitutional governance as if that is the highest virtue.
Your perspective provides a more 'boots on the ground' level of detail not covered by the authors of 'The Fourth Turning.' And yet we all see whats happening. In fact it is an international phenomenon vis a vie Russia and the West: The Uniparty yearns for total war on all fronts foreign and domestic. How does your spin differ from that of the book at the US level, or do you see it more as two sides of the same coin?
Stunning and realistic. I agree that the divide is becoming clearer, except to the regime. The progressives once again assume that blind righteousness will overcome and convert.
In addition to people still being relatively comfortable, I think a big factor that has so far kept things from going kinetic is that the people who really understand violence are on the right. Firearms owners and military veterans - particularly those blooded in the sands of Afghanistan and Mesopotamia - know just how bad armed civil conflict is. That makes them especially reluctant to take that step. On the other side, leftists as a rule have no familiarity with violence (as revealed by their naive equation of speech with violence) and so, they keep pushing.
All of this could fall apart very quickly. The speed of the hyperconnected telecommunications system; the interpenetration of rural red and urban blue areas; a collapsing economy; a federal government perceived as illegitimate; all of these could combine explosively, such that when the balloon goes up, it goes up everywhere and all at once.
"the interpenetrative of total rural red and urban blue areas;"
John, would you expand on this thought?
That should be "interpenetration of rural red and urban blue areas".
If you look at the county-level political geography of the US, both blue and red states actually consist of blue cities surrounded by red counties; the states are only red or blue depending on the relative balance of urban/rural populations.
That means the political separation is not as cleanly geographical as it was during Civil War 1. If CW2 manifests, rather than a relatively isolated front, we're more likely to see large parts of the country spontaneously combust into fragmented battlefields.
Yes, agree.
And a fascinating dynamic is playing out now. We are starting to see the first fruits of people shedding their prescribed labels-- left, right, liberal, conservative-- and starting to talk as Americans w shared concerns-- good jobs, safe neighborhood, stable prices, healthy families. The Oligarchs have kept us all divided previously. If people in the city and county realize they are allies not enemies, there is huge hope there.
Excellent article.
Love your scientific background.
Great analysis of the current situation, especially your take on the differences between the stable social order of 1984 vs the increasing chaos and dysfunction of our leftist-controlled institutions, as well as the deepening disconnect between the regime's official ideology and what the population really thinks.
There's much room for hope given how incompetent the Left is. The Left is now the elite, and their enemies are the counterculture of today. The Left's grand project of remaking society can only increase the chaos, yet paradoxically, chaos works better for their opposition to wage an asymmetrical culture war (and a guerilla war if things do go hot). The Left's acceleration and overreach, which is inevitable at this point, is basically giving their enemies in today's counterculture the tools they need for victory.
Great analysis. How ironic that the theatre that are the J6 hearing will be proven completely hollow and politically fruitless by the same liberals that have been smugly denouncing the evil terrorist racist homophobic unconstitutional conservatives as they foment riots and violence because of the supreme court decisions on Thursday and Friday. The left is so contradictory and self-destructive that it is like a house built on sand. They argue from both sides of their mouth without blinking, it's amazing. The children they so want to dominate and claim ownership over institutionaly are the same that they would happily have murdered under their right to abortion.
Excellent post, yes.
Random thoughts...
1. We really do see repeated and increasing collisions between the Regime acceleration and Desantis and the state of Florida. (I remain suspicious of Desantis but...). At the same time, Florida politicians seem to be catching the wind direction and increasingly playing to a growing Florida constituency that is cheering on resistance to Regime overreach. In fact it seems the people want more not less. So Florida may well be the match the Regime wants to set it all on fire. Perhaps the Regime is pushing out the radical policies specifically calculated to trigger Florida and induce a show down where the Regime believes they can hammer Desantis and co. pour encourager des autres.
2. The Regime must be fairly desperate as they lack anything like the firepower or manpower to force compliance. They could cut off federal $$ to states but that is not going to work if the issue is popular w state residents.
3. National divorce....hmmm. The problem w this idea is that there just aren't enough people on the Blue side to make a split work outside of certain cities. Sure, Portland would be happy to be its own communist state but i think one of the most effective bits of propaganda sold to Americans is the notion of "blue states" and "blue cities." Given what we know about how many millions of ballots the Oligarchs had to manufacture in 2020 in their supposedly bluest cities (philly, Pittsburgh, Detroit), they don't have anywhere near the level of support they want us to believe. So it's entirely likely that Red states will eventually either nullify federal edicts they don't like or secede in some fashion, but it will look like the great United States of American Ice Cube where the US steadily shrinks from 50 to 45 to 38 to 28 and so on until people living in the melty remains of the US demand similar autonomy or abandon the remainers en masse.
Some of the most insightful stuff you have written. As DanielD noted, the contrast between Orwell and now is telling and compelling. Thanks for thinking this through...
Though I suppose if you divide momentum squared by mass you’ll get back to kinetic energy. It’s just an unorthodox way of looking at it.
Proportional to square of velocity rather than momentum.
Its sad for them that they don't realize that they can put on the brakes without losing control in the long run. Their only true political opposition consists of people with principles, they can't imagine that their political opponents wouldn't do exactly what they're doing if they were in the same position. I'm going to go read your post on social cohesion, I think we can have a cohesive identity as Americans as opposed to anti-Americans that are sure the ends always justify the means. I can't believe the extent to which the anti-Americans have come out of the woodwork following the RvW reversal openly calling for ignoring constitutional governance as if that is the highest virtue.
Your perspective provides a more 'boots on the ground' level of detail not covered by the authors of 'The Fourth Turning.' And yet we all see whats happening. In fact it is an international phenomenon vis a vie Russia and the West: The Uniparty yearns for total war on all fronts foreign and domestic. How does your spin differ from that of the book at the US level, or do you see it more as two sides of the same coin?
Corky's Friend
Stunning and realistic. I agree that the divide is becoming clearer, except to the regime. The progressives once again assume that blind righteousness will overcome and convert.